Little Respect for World Order: America is First
Love him or hate him, he appears to have little respect for world order; America is first. With seven weeks to go before the US Presidential Election Donald Trump seems to be regaining lost ground against his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, and the election is far from lost.
To some, perhaps many, he is an uncouth, trigger-happy Twitterer, who has little respect for friend or foe if they stand in his way. This president had no experience of Congress or Senate before running for, and achieving, office in 2016. He knew little about diplomacy then and probably hasn’t taken time to learn much about it since.
So what is it about President Trump that appeals to his followers because as head of the world’s largest liberal democracy he shows little respect for the liberal international order or the policies of his predecessors. Whether it be the United Nations, The World Bank, The International Monetary Fund, the World Health Organisation, the World Trade Organisation or NATO, he has no time for them. In his view they are inefficient and take too many US dollars; other nations do not contribute enough towards their upkeep. That is the first thing that is music to the ears of his supporters.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the USA has been the unipole, the world hegemon, and ever since it has made the mistake of trying to convert other nations, with entirely different cultures, to its own image: liberal democracy works for the USA so it should work for everyone else. The result has been a succession of futile wars in the Middle East, notably Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, which inflicted huge suffering and cost trillions of US dollars, money that could have been better invested for the benefit of US citizens.
For the president, that is money which was ill-spent. He wishes to row back from this sort of profligacy and place his concentration elsewhere. Whilst liberal democracy may work very well at home, as a foreign policy he believes it stinks. He is, first and foremost, a naked nationalist. It is America first. Whilst other presidents were fighting wars in the Middle East which achieved nothing, in economic terms China was quietly rising and suddenly it has become the elephant in the room.
Trump realises that unless something changes soon, it won’t be long before the balance of power changes. China (population approaching 1.4 billion) is already becoming the hegemon in South East Asia and this is something the USA (population 330 million) will not tolerate. The problem with becoming a unipole is that the unipole wants it to stay that way; it does not want suddenly to enter a bipolar world, still less one where in the not too distant future it may be playing second fiddle to a larger and stronger economy.
Hence Trump plays hard ball. He slaps tariffs on Chinese goods. He claims that China influences the WHO. He derides China’s Belt and Road initiative as being bad for Asia, Europe and the world (although at least 125 out of 193 countries have signed up for it).
Much as these tactics appeal to his supporters, America’s allies may buck against some of the measures which lead to an erosion of trust. The dollar is the global reserve currency but America has weaponised it. If any organisation (no matter where in the world) uses the US dollar in a transaction that breaches sanctions it has unilaterally imposed upon a country, then that is an offence punishable in the United States even though that company is resident in a different jurisdiction and none of its officers ever set foot in the USA. It remains to be seen whether the prediction of Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of England, that the world’s reliance on the dollar “won’t hold” transpires, now that the USA is seen by its allies to be more introspective and unreliable.
As for the election, it is all good stuff to tweet on and shout about. And there is nothing like an enemy without (for these purposes, China) to unite one’s voters. This election is not done yet, and if Trump is re-elected, fasten your seatbelts and hold on tight. A second-term Trump will be a president on steroids and it will be a hair-raising and dizzy ride.
Acknowledgements to Kishore Mahbubani Has China Won, and John J Mearsheimer The Great Delusion